Britain is in the grip of a “political earthquake” with Nigel Farage now a “serious contender” to become Prime Minister and the Conservatives facing an “existential crisis”, according to a new analysis. As many as three in 10 people would vote for Reform UK if an election was held tomorrow, Survation polling found.

Mr Farage’s party was the top choice among likely voters – with people who don’t know how they would vote or would not say how they would cast their ballot removed – on 30%. This is higher than for Labour (25%), the Conservatives (18%) or the Liberal Democrats (13%).

Among these voters, support for Reform was strongest among the 55-64 age group (41%) and lowest among 25-34s (19%).

Worrying for the rival parties, Mr Farage has the highest approval ratings of any party leader. Thirty-six percent of respondents strongly or somewhat approve of Mr Farage – more than Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (28%), Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey (25%), or the Conservatives’ Kemi Badenoch (24%.

The polling shows the depth of the PM’s unpopularity.

Fifty-two percent of people strongly or somewhat disapproved of Sir Keir – a worse rating than for Mr Farage (39%), Mrs Badenoch (37%) or Sir Ed (25%).

The polling for True North Advisors of more than 2,000 adults took place over May 2-5 in the wake of elections which saw Reform win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, two mayoralties and 677 council seats.

Calum Ross, a senior advisor at True North said: “This latest poll underlines the scale of the political earthquake that is shaking UK politics, with Nigel Farage now a serious contender to become the next Prime Minister. The shockwaves from this ongoing surge in support for Reform UK will be far-reaching, not least for the Conservative Party, which is facing an existential crisis.

“The only saving grace for Mr Farage’s opponents is that the next election is likely to be several years away. However, unless something changes, the rise and rise of Reform looks set to shape the debate every day until then.”

The polling will heighten hopes among Reform activists the party – which today has five of Westminster’s 650 MPs – can secure an outright majority in the House of Commons. The party is preparing for next year’s Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections.

According to Politico’s Poll of Polls, Reform is on 29%, ahead of Labour (23%), the Conservatives (18%), the Liberal Democrats (15%) and the Greens (9%).